Monitoring of Arakan Conflict

Burmase version

November-13rd to December-13rd Overview

Background

TThe previous de facto ceasefire, also known as the ‘humanitarian ceasefire’, introduced on November 25, 2022, between the military junta and the Arakan Army (AA) in Arakan, lasted almost a year. The impact of Cyclone Mocha and its humanitarian consequences also contributed to the longevity of the truce, as the United League of Arakan (ULA), the political wing of the AA, hesitated to renew armed conflict while the local population was in great need of assistance.

However, since the two parties lacked not only non-negotiable political stances but also the political will to march towards sustainable peace in the region, the return of armed confrontation seemed inevitable. The questions were only about when and how. By October 10, the AA, along with two other ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’ (3BTA) groups, MNDAA and TNLA, released a statement about the death of one AA soldier and injuries to 10 others near the KIA-controlled town of Liza on the China border. The statement also mentioned their solidarity with the KIA in the fight for justice and truth.

Two weeks later, on October 27, the 3BTA announced their plan to stage ‘Operation 1027’, based on various objectives such as the protection of civilian lives and properties, self-defenses, suppression of online gaming and fraud, and the eradication of military dictatorship, among others. Analysts soon remarked that this military operation was a ‘long-arranged’ effort with nationwide coordinated actors and movements. Consequently, on November 13, the AA in Arakan initiated a new round of offensive military attacks, especially in Rathedaung and Minbya townships. The de facto ceasefire introduced in late November 2022 was broken just a week before its anniversary. In response, the junta authorities in Arakan imposed a total blockade of travel and trade, not just between Rakhine state and other areas but also within towns and villages, leading to a humanitarian emergency across the region. Despite this, armed conflicts continued in several parts of the state.

A. Monitoring the Conflicts

The key actors in the armed conflicts in Arakan are the Myanmar junta military and the Arakan Army. As a state’s armed force, the junta military possesses ground, navy, and air forces, which are used in attacks against the AA, in addition to the Border Guard Police (BGP) and the conventional Myanmar Police Force (MPF). For the AA, guerrilla tactics based on revolutionary ground troops are the key fighting forces, as it apparently does not yet possess air and navy powers.

Within a month, there were at least approximately 65 reported incidents in Arakan. The military operations were mostly offensive actions conducted by the AA. In terms of location, the armed clashes were primarily concentrated in the Pauktaw, Paletwa, Maungdaw, and Rathedaung townships.

Regarding the types of battles, around four BGP posts in Rathedaung, Buthidaung, and Maungdaw townships were seized by the AA. In Rathedaung township, the Chain Khar Li and Done Paik posts were captured on November 13, while the Done Nyo and Kha Htee Hla camps were eradicated on November 17 and 21, respectively. Additionally, according to the data, at least 7 police stations in Kyauktaw, Rambree, Taunggoke, and Mrauk-U townships were impacted, with 6 being abandoned and 1 seized by the AA.

Most notably, two key ‘tactical military camps’ known as Hta-Run-Aing and Numboo were seized by the AA in Paletwa township along the Kaladan river. The first camp was reported to be seized by the AA on December 4 after 23 days of military attacks, while the latter was captured on December 11 after 27 days of operations. On another front, in terms of geography, local media also reported that attacks in urban areas occurred at least 25 times. Other kinds of attacks by the junta forces include heavy artillery shelling, air strikes, drone attacks, small arms fire, and more.

B. Key Events of the Armed Conflicts

1. The AA has seized two ‘Tactical Military Commands’ (TMC) in Paletwa township.

One of the most noteworthy armed incidents on the Arakan front within the last month is the seizure of the ‘Hta- Run-Aing’ and ‘Num-Boo’ tactical military commands by the AA on December 4 and 11, respectively. The AA troops initiated offensive military attacks on these two posts starting November 13, 2023. On December 4, the AA announced that the operation against Hta-Run-Aing lasted 21 days, during which the junta forces resisted by using air strikes, heavy artillery shelling, and chemical warfare agents. The AA also seized some dead bodies of he junta forces, along with ammunition and military equipment. Regarding the capture of ‘Num-Boo’ on December 11, the statement mentioned the discovery of the dead body of the local commander, a position typically held by a colonel.

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