Addressing the Question of Socio-Political Cohesion in Arakan

Executive Summary

1. Arakan, known as Rakhine State, a region with a complex history of ethnic and political conflict, has seen significant developments in recent years. The region’s long-standing tensions between the Rakhine and Rohingya communities, driven by conflicting historical narratives and political agendas, have continued to evolve amid changing political landscapes.

2. The Rakhine and Rohingya communities hold competing historical narratives, with Rakhine perspectives focusing on the influx of Bengali migrants during British rule, while Rohingya narratives emphasize their longstanding presence and indigenous status in the region. These conflicting views fuel distrust, making social cohesion efforts challenging. Demographic and identity disputes are central to ongoing tensions. Since Myanmar’s independence, both communities have pursued different political goals, with some groups advocating for autonomy and others engaging in armed struggles. Despite occasional alliances, deep mistrust has hindered lasting cooperation.

3. Political developments from 2010 to 2020, including contentious elections, communal violence, and the rise of armed groups like the Arakan Army (AA) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), have deepened divisions. The area's history of conflict, including the 2012 communal violence and the 2016-17 Rohingya crisis, has led to deep social divides with severe repercussions for both communities. The rise of armed groups like the Arakan Army (AA) and significant foreign investments from China and India underscore its strategic importance.

4. The 2020 elections and the 2021 military coup brought new challenges, impacting political dynamics and exacerbating tensions. Despite these difficulties, there have been signs of improving relations, particularly among younger people and through joint community events. However, structural discrimination and limited mobility for the Rohingya persist.

5. Following the February 2021 military coup, the dynamics in Rakhine State shifted significantly. The Arakan Army (AA) focused on local governance rather than national anti-coup efforts, while Rakhine political parties initially engaged with the junta but later distanced themselves. The AA's strategy has been to consolidate regional control and manage local issues, avoiding direct confrontation with the broader anti-coup movement. For the Rohingya community, the coup exacerbated their already dire conditions, with increased arrests and blockages of aid. Despite some solidarity from anti-coup protesters, the junta's actions have worsened the Rohingya crisis, leaving little hope for immediate improvement or safe repatriation.

6. The ULA/AA's policy on the Rohingya issue reflects a nuanced approach, aiming to integrate the Rohingya into local governance and improve inter-community relations. It has adopted a complex stance on the Rohingya issue, advocating for international support while attempting to integrate Rohingya into local administration. There are signs of increased social cohesion, with joint community events and a decrease in anti-Muslim hate speech. However, the role of international actors and ongoing challenges related to repatriation and military conscription add complexity to the path towards peace and understanding in Rakhine State.

7. On the other hand, the ULA's efforts in repatriation discussions with Bangladesh are fraught with challenges. While there have been talks, progress has been slow due to ongoing instability and military unpredictability. Nevertheless, the AA’s role remains crucial in any repatriation process, with potential shifts in Bangladesh’s stance depending on evolving ceasefire and peace negotiations.

8. The military recruitment by the State Administration Council (SAC) of Rohingya youths and the cooperation of Rohingya militants with the junta have further strained relations between the two communities. The military’s actions have led to increased conflict and instability, compounding the Rohingya community's plight. Accusations and human rights allegations by Rohingya community members toward the Myanmar military and AA still require a balanced and comprehensive approach to addressing the crisis.

Introduction

Arakan, known as Rakhine State, situated on the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal and connected to other parts of Myanmar by the Arakan Roma Mountain Range, is a region characterized by complex political and strategic dynamics. Since 2016-17, it has been a hot spot for the Rohingya crisis and the rise of armed movements by the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA). The state's strategic importance is underscored by significant foreign investments from China and India, positioning it as a crucial connecting point for these regional powers. The Rakhine people, or Arakanese, are one of Myanmar's prominent ethnic groups, with an estimated population of around 2 million.

The situation in Arakan has become more complex with the outbreak of the 2012 communal violence that left scores dead and some 140,000 displaced. Like the rest of Myanmar, Rakhine State is a diverse region. The largest group in the state is the Rakhine Buddhists, who make up about 60 percent of the 3.2 million total population. Muslim communities, including the Rohingya, account for about 30 percent, and the remaining 10 percent consists of the Chin (who are Buddhist, Christian, or animist) and a number of other small minorities, including the Kaman (also Muslim), Mro, Khami, Dainet, and Maramagyi.

Arakan has a history marked by prolonged and recurrent internal and communal conflicts. Since 2012, the state has seen escalating communal conflicts, resulting in armed confrontations, significant displacement, food insecurity, and disrupted livelihoods. The 2012 tensions between Muslim and Buddhist communities in northern Arakan escalated into armed conflict involving the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Myanmar military in October 2016, and further deteriorated with continued tensions in 2018 between the AA and the Myanmar military, exacerbating the socio-economic situation in the region. Therefore, these kinds of ethno-political complexities create hardships for social cohesion among the people coexisting in the societies of the state.

Like many other conflict-stricken areas in the world, the question of social cohesion in Arakan has also become one of the most intense and sensitive issues. The concept of social cohesion acts as the adhesive that keeps a society united or coexisting peacefully. Experiences also show that societies with stronger social cohesion tend to be healthier, more capable of withstanding external challenges, and achieve greater economic advancement. Understanding social cohesion helps in comprehending various issues such as globalization, ethnic and group divisions, inequalities, and obstacles to upward social mobility. Social cohesion is not merely about diversity but about how well a community works together in a diverse society. Dick Stanley's definition, "the willingness of members of society to cooperate with each other in order to survive and prosper," is fitting in this context. It encompasses the strength and quality of relationships and bonds among society members, involving a sense of belonging, trust, and mutual respect. High social cohesion implies connected, supportive, and collaborative individuals, leading to a stable, harmonious, and well-functioning society with shared values, inclusive social networks, and equitable opportunities for participation and advancement.

Addressing the topic of social cohesion in the region is crucial, as Rakhine State, with approximately 3.2 million residents, is Myanmar's second poorest state, with a poverty rate of 78%. The violent conflict has significantly impacted people's lives, especially minority ethnic and religious groups, who often feel ignored by the government and suffer from poor services. These issues stem from a history of ethnic distrust, lack of trust in the government, and poor communication between local authorities and civil society organizations. Limited access to public services, poor infrastructure, unemployment, low living standards, and the absence of legal mechanisms have caused mutual fear and distrust among all communities in Rakhine.

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