A Complexity Analysis of Rohingya Refugee Repatriation between Bangladesh and Myanmar

Executive Summary

The Rohingya refugee repatriation issue represents one of the most protracted humanitarian crises along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. This study applies complexity theory to examine four key characteristics: heterogeneity of agents, absence of problem ownership, uneven policy adoptions, and non-linearity. The crisis has evolved through multiple displacement waves since 1978, with the 2017 exodus resulting in approximately 963,000 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. The repatriation process, initially governed by bilateral agreements, has become increasingly complicated by the 2021 military coup, shifting territorial control in Rakhine State by the Arakan Army (ULA/AA), and ongoing international legal proceedings regarding genocide allegations.

The heterogeneity of stakeholders presents a fundamental challenge. Key actors include the Bangladesh and Myanmar governments, the Rohingya refugee community with fragmented representation, camp-based organizations, armed groups (ARSA, RSO, ARA, RIM), diaspora networks, the ULA/AA as de facto authority, international organizations, and regional powers (China, India, ASEAN, OIC, EU, US). The refugee community exhibits deep divisions through competing bodies such as the United Council of Rohingya (UCR), camp-based groups, armed factions, and diaspora coalitions. This diversity of actors with conflicting interests creates a landscape where no single stakeholder can unilaterally determine the repatriation outcome.

A critical feature is the absence of clear ownership regarding responsibility. While Bangladesh and Myanmar are sovereign states with primary obligations, each deflects responsibility. Myanmar maintains that procedures are established, while Bangladesh argues Myanmar must create conducive conditions. The Rohingya community possesses agency over whether to return, yet their conditions—including citizenship recognition, identity acknowledgment, security guarantees, and property restitution—remain largely unaddressed. The ULA/AA, controlling border townships designated for resettlement, has become indispensable despite lacking international recognition. Regional and international actors exercise influence without implementation monopoly, creating fragmented responsibility that perpetuates deadlock.

The issue exhibits significant non-linearity where actions produce unintended consequences. Prolonged displacement has generated host-community tensions, environmental degradation, armed group violence, coercive relocation to Bhasan Char, movement restrictions, and secondary migration to Malaysia and India. On the Myanmar side, ULA/AA territorial gains, junta collaboration with Rohingya militants, land allocation disputes, and mutual atrocities have created new return barriers. These interconnected dynamics create a feedback loop where displacement generates new challenges that further obstruct voluntary, safe, dignified, and sustainable repatriation, demonstrating that the path from displacement to return follows no straightforward trajectory.

Brief Conceptual Framework

Since the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar has its unique root causes and inter-connected segments ranging from the local, national, regional, and international scales, the conceptual development provided by complexity theory or complexity thinking is essential to better understand the dynamics and ecosystem of the issue.

In a study about the relationship between complexity theory and public administration, the questions of non-linearity, self-organization and co-evolution have been explored. This study has stressed that although the observations on complex thinking come from various branches and theories, all of these findings share the same idea. It means that the whole (system) is more than the collection ....Read More

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