Monthly Report | January 2026

Battle for Rakhine’s Last Strongholds: Arakan Army Offensives, Sham Elections, and Civilian Hardships in Sittwe-Kyaukphyu

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic, social, and humanitarian issues in Arakan in January 2026.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

The Arakan Army pressed offensives toward Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, capturing outposts, inflicting junta casualties/desertions, and enforcing local governance (drugs, traffic, health, security rules). Junta responded with airstrikes, artillery, and blockades. Border clashes with ARSA escalated near Bangladesh. Junta’s “sham” election gave USDP wins in limited pockets amid fraud, low turnout, and international rejection. ICJ hearings on the Rohingya genocide advanced with survivor testimonies and arguments on atrocities/citizenship.

Agriculture showed mixed outcomes, including strong paddy/betel yields but low prices, high costs, and conflict-related disruptions (e.g., watermelon, Thazin flowers, salt/brickmaking declines). Fishing was hindered by blockades and resource scarcity. Bangladesh trade disrupted by smuggling arrests. The Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project progressed despite 6+ billion kyats in compensation and a Chinese security deployment, raising local concerns.

AA/ULA prioritized civilian services in controlled areas: opened a medical school, conducted child vaccinations (especially in Paletwa), and received donations to address shortages. Health challenges persisted, with rising cases of pneumonia and flu among children and skin diseases among displaced people in Rathedaung. Religious tolerance is evident in events/condolences across faiths, including Christianity and Islam. Plastic waste poses growing environmental risks. Youth education and prospects remained uncertain amid conflict. Overall, AA efforts focused on building social stability and public services despite war-related pressures.

Intense junta airstrikes, artillery, drones, and blockades caused mass displacement (two-thirds of Kyaukphyu by Jan 6, thousands near Sittwe on Jan 30), forcing civilians into bomb shelters or flight. Civilian casualties mounted from shelling, drones, landmines/ERW (dozens killed/injured, including children/infants). IDPs faced acute water shortages, severe cold, health risks, and livelihood collapse (e.g., begging). The regime detained hundreds of Muslims in Sittwe; AA assisted some evacuations (e.g., Maungdaw Muslims from ARSA threats). Charities provided emergency relief (food, clothing, wells, and psychosocial support for children) but needs remained critical and did not de-escalate.

Key Developments

A - Politics: Three Key Highlights

B - Economic Fall down: Three Key Highlights

C - Social Crisis: Three Key Highlights

D - Humanitarian Issue: Three Key Highlights

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts: Three Key Highlights

1. 1-Jan-26 to mid-Jan-26: Intensified junta airstrikes and AA advances

Junta (SSPC) carried out repeated airstrikes and artillery on Arakan areas (Sittwe, Thandwe, Kyaukphyu, etc.), targeting AA positions and civilians. AA countered with drone/heavy attacks (e.g., Dhanyawaddy Naval Base on Jan 7), outpost captures near Sittwe (Jan 9), and territorial pushes, causing junta casualties and desertions.

2. 12-Jan-26 to 30-Jan-26: ICJ hearings on Rohingya genocide case

ICJ in The Hague held oral hearings on Gambia's case against Myanmar for the Rohingya genocide. Key moments: Gambia's arguments and survivor testimonies, Myanmar's denials (blaming lower-level actions/ARSA), and debates on citizenship/reparations. Hearings linked to ongoing Rakhine border clashes.

3. Early to late January 2026: Junta's "sham" election results

Junta's phased election saw USDP claim wins in limited Rakhine pockets (Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Manaung) amid low turnout, fraud claims, and exclusion of AA areas. Results favored military allies; faced ASEAN/UN non-recognition and criticism.

General Overview

In January 2026, Arakan saw intense fighting as the Arakan Army (AA/ULA) pressed offensives toward Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, capturing outposts, inflicting heavy junta casualties, and prompting soldier desertions, while consolidating governance in controlled areas through regulations on drugs, traffic, health, and security alerts. The junta responded with frequent airstrikes, artillery shelling, fishing/travel blockades, and fortifications, worsening civilian hardship and...Read More

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