Monthly Report | No.40.February 2026

Inhumane Air Strikes and Civilian Suffering Continue in Arakan

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic, social, and humanitarian issues in Arakan in February 2026.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

In February 2026, over five years post-coup, Arakan Army (AA) strengthened control in Arakan (Rakhine) through governance and alliances, inflicting heavy junta losses in Kyaukphyu clashes. The junta escalated airstrikes and blockades while pushing a disputed election narrative (announcing 1,025 MPs), high turnout claims, and Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership role amid forced conscription, international rejection, and EU condemnation on the coup anniversary.

Arakan’s economy under AA/ULA (United League of Arakan) showed resilience but faced collapse from conflict: paddy market failure caused farmer debts and reduced planting, met by ULA paddy purchases and fertilizer aid. Mizoram-Paletwa border trade halted briefly due to incidents, spiking prices before reopening; the V-Power plant’s relocation from Kyaukphyu signaled FDI risks, alongside market volatility (high spare parts, charcoal surges, cash shortages.

February 2026 compounded Arakan’s social strain with two strong earthquakes disrupting conflict-hit areas, deepening IDP education crises (school closures, access barriers, resource gaps for Muslim students), though AA/ULA launched nursing/policy programs and fostered reform hopes. Healthcare advanced with Nipah prevention after Bangladesh cases, outbreak responses (hepatitis, skin diseases), and free services for around 500 displaced, highlighting governance efforts amid war-induced vulnerabilities.

February 2026 saw a severe humanitarian escalation in Arakan from junta airstrikes, causing mass civilian deaths (e.g., 17-20 killed in Ponnagyun’s Yoengu market bombing on 24-Feb), a monthly toll of more than 90 affected via drones/artillery/landmines, and widespread trauma (especially children). IDPs endured shelter collapse, starvation risks, repeated flight, and aid disruptions (internet blackouts), offset by community donations and local support, while UN agencies reported nearly 2 million in need.

Key Developments

A - Politics: Three Key Highlights

B - Economic Fall down: Three Key Highlights

C - Social Crisis: Three Key Highlights

D - Humanitarian Issue: Three Key Highlights

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts: Three Key Highlights

1. Intensified Clashes in Kyaukphyu and Heavy Junta Casualties/Reinforcements

Repeated heavy fighting in Kyaukphyu Township, with AA-led forces inflicting major casualties on junta troops (e.g., over 70 in one skirmish on 17-Feb, 20 plus killed in convoy attack on 25- Feb). Junta sent reinforcements, used airstrikes/drones, fortifications, and offensives to retake positions (e.g., Point 666 base attempts on 16-Feb), but faced retreats and failures. This highlights AA's strong control and junta's desperation in a strategic area (near Chinese projects/coast).

2. Junta Airstrikes and Crimes Against Civilians in Arakan

Frequent State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) airstrikes, drone strikes, and village burnings (e.g., 7 bombs on 18-Feb in Kyaukphyu; reports of 471 airstrikes in Arakan since coup by 23-Feb; torching of 11 plus villages in Kyaukphyu over the past year on 11-Feb). Culminated in major civilian casualties, aligning with real-world reports of airstrikes killing 17 plus civilians (including women/children) in Ponnagyun Township around late February. This underscores accusations of crimes against humanity.

3. Post-Election Developments and Junta Consolidation Efforts

UEC announced 1,025 elected MPs (4-Feb); Min Aung Hlaing positioned for State Counsellor role (21-Feb); claims of successful elections with high turnout (26-27 Feb, over 24 million ballots); preparations for parliament (24-Feb). Contrasted with widespread denials of legitimacy, forced conscription spikes (thousands arrested, including Rakhine youth), and international condemnations (e.g., EU statement on 1-Feb for 5th coup anniversary). This reflects the junta's attempt to legitimize its rule amid ongoing resistance.

General Overview

In February 2026, marking over five years since the February 2021 military coup, the log documents escalating conflict in Arakan, where the AA maintains strong territorial control in most areas (including governance, infrastructure repairs, traffic enforcement, wildlife protection, and cultural events like Chin National Day support). The junta (SSPC) faces heavy losses in clashes (especially Kyaukphyu,...Read More

Download the full report to read more!