Myanmar Junta's Sham Elections from Arakan Perspective

Executive Summary

The 2025 elections in Myanmar were conducted amid ongoing armed conflicts, territorial fragmentation, and political suppression and repression, functioning primarily as a managed authoritarian process rather than a mechanism for democratic representation. Building on historical patterns of electoral manipulation and annulment, the junta used the elections to project constitutional continuity while maintaining effective military control over political participation and outcomes.

In the pre-election period, the junta systematically engineered the political environment to eliminate electoral uncertainty. Key measures included the banning and dissolution of electorally legitimate parties such as the NLD, SNLD, and ANP; the enforcement of restrictive legal frameworks under the Political Parties Registration Law and Election Protection Law; and the partial shift to proportional representation, which fragmented opposition votes and favored military-aligned parties with administrative access and coercive capacity.

In Arakan, electoral participation was territorially selective and institutionally severed from local political realities. Polling was limited to three junta-controlled townships—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung-while large areas under ULA/AA were excluded entirely. Even within Sittwe and Kyaukphyu townships, majority of wards and village tracts were omitted, reinforcing de facto political partition and denying institutional representation to much of the population.

Election-day dynamics in Arakan demonstrated that voter participation was driven largely by coercion, fear of reprisal, and logistical constraint, rather than political preference. Residents reported forced mobilization by party representatives, heavy military and police deployment, artillery shelling near populated areas, and technical failures in electronic voting machines, all of which undermined transparency, voluntariness, and public confidence in the process.

Despite the junta’s reported nationwide voter turnout figures, actual voting in Arakan was visibly low and uneven. In Sittwe, Rohingya Muslim communities showed significantly higher turnout than ethnic Rakhine voters. As a result, electoral outcomes were largely shaped by deep political and demographic divides: the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured seats in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, largely due to stronger participation from Rohingya/Muslim voters as well as military personnel and government employees. In contrast, Rakhine-based political parties such as the Arakan Front Party (AFP) and Rakhine National Party (RNP) performed better in areas like Manaung, where there are no Rohingya residents and only a very small number of military and government staff.

The post-election political impacts in Arakan are significant. The elections further eroded trust in formal political institutions, reinforced public perceptions that junta-led electoral politics cannot address local grievances related to autonomy and security, and indirectly strengthened reliance on parallel governance structures, particularly those operated by the ULA/AA, for political voice, protection, and dispute resolution.

Introduction: Background of the report

Astate’s electoral system is crucial for democracy and accountable governance, with free and fair elections being essential. But, frequently, elections have been shaped or nullified by coercion, conflict, and direct military intervention, by recurring cycles of military intervention. Even before independence, the April 1947 election, held to establish a Constituent Assembly rather than a parliament, were conducted under severe security restrictions, voter coercion, and the exclusion of large parts of the country, with turnout falling below 50 percent. Although the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) dominated the outcome, the process lacked strong democratic legitimacy and was further undermined by the assassination of Aung San and other leaders later that year.

After gaining independence in 1948, Myanmar held its first multiparty parliamentary elections in 1951–52 amidst the armed struggles and political instabilities, bringing U Nu to power. Armed conflicts and political instability excluded large areas and kept voter turnout below 20 percent, limiting legitimacy. Since then, Myanmar has held nationwide elections under changing systems: competitive parliamentary democracy in the 1950s, one-party socialist elections (1974–1985), and a hybrid military-dominated system after 2010. Of these elections, only ten resulted in governments actually taking office, underscoring the persistent gap between electoral processes and, ... Read more

| Download the full report to read more!