Monthly Report | December 2025

Displacement, Air Strikes and Civilian Suffering in Arakan

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Western Myanmar in November 2025.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

December 2025 saw continued intense conflict in Arakan, with the Arakan Army (AA) achieving substantial military advances against the Myanmar junta across multiple fronts, including heavy casualties inflicted on regime forces and the downing of suicide drones. The junta's most condemned action was the 12 December airstrike on Mrauk-U Hospital, which triggered widespread international outrage from the UN, ASEAN, and Bangladesh. Amid escalating violence, the regime pushed forward a widely criticized "sham" election in only three contested townships (Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Manaung), characterized by low turnout, exclusion of AA-controlled areas, and victories for junta-aligned parties, further undermining its legitimacy with no prospect of de-escalation.

Ongoing junta blockades and regional instability severely strained Arakan’s economy throughout December. Agriculture suffered from low paddy prices, exploitative trading, harvest interruptions due to fighting, seed shortages, and weather-related crop losses, while poultry farmers faced supply disruptions. Sea trade routes were repeatedly disrupted as Bangladeshi authorities seized numerous boats smuggling essential goods (cement, fertilizers, fuel, medicines) destined for AA areas. Rising commodity and gold prices exacerbated civilian hardship, compounded by reports of inconsistent enforcement of AA bans on junta-linked products, deepening economic and humanitarian strain.

Healthcare and social conditions deteriorated markedly, with widespread skin disease outbreaks affecting displaced persons and residents across at least seven townships, alongside medicine shortages in volunteer clinics and urgent needs for Mrauk-U Hospital bombing victims. The AA demonstrated proactive social governance by administering a second round of free vaccinations for young children and issuing migratory bird conservation rules. Cultural resilience persisted through observances of International Human Rights Day and widespread Christmas celebrations in multiple AA-controlled townships, where AA forces distributed gifts and greetings, helping maintain community morale amid hardship.

The month recorded grave humanitarian violations, with junta airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling killing at least 53 civilians and injuring 108 in December alone, including the devastating Mrauk-U Hospital bombing (33 deaths) and year-end strikes in Thandwe (9 deaths, including children). Over 7,000 IDPs faced acute food and water shortages, while shelling triggered further displacement and drying water sources heightened vulnerability. Arbitrary arrests of Rakhine displaced persons continued, alongside injuries from unexploded ordnance and landmines; however, strong philanthropic responses delivered hundreds of millions of kyats in aid to bombing victims, underscoring community resilience against systematic junta attacks documented by local rights groups.

Key Developments

A - Politics: Three Key Highlights

B - Economic Fall down: Three Key Highlights

C - Social Crisis: Three Key Highlights

D - Humanitarian Issue: Three Key Highlights

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts: Three Key Highlights

1. 12-Dec-25: Junta airstrike on Mrauk-U Hospital

The Myanmar military (State Security and Peace Commission) bombed Mrauk-U Hospital, killing dozens and injuring many. This incident drew widespread international and local condemnation, including from the UN, ASEAN, Bangladesh, victims' families (calling for sanctions), and various organizations. The junta spread misinformation, while the UN investigative body sought witness information. AA appealed for aid to victims.

2. Mid-to-late December 2025: Escalating clashes and junta airstrikes across Rakhine State

Intense fighting intensified in multiple areas (Kyaukphyu, Ann-Padan Road, Gwa, Ponnagyun, Pauktaw, Thandwe, Magway/Bago/Ayeyarwady regions), with AA inflicting heavy casualties on junta forces, seizing positions, capturing/defecting soldiers, and shooting down suicide drones (e.g., on 25-Dec-25). Junta responded with repeated airstrikes on civilian areas, villages, monasteries, schools, and houses (e.g., on 22- Dec-25 in Gwa, on 31-Dec-25 in Thandwe, causing fires).

3. 28-Dec-25 to 31-Dec-25: Junta-organized "sham" election in parts of Rakhine

Elections proceeded amid heavy fighting and bombardment in three townships (Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Manaung), with low turnout (e.g., pickup trucks used to bring voters in Kyaukphyu; only half participated overall). USDP and Dr. Aye Maung's party claimed wins (partly via Muslim and junta’ s staff votes), while AFP candidates lost. Many areas (15 AA-controlled townships + 4 more) were excluded; protests occurred in Japan, and the UN urged international rejection.

General Overview

In December 2025, fierce fighting persisted in Myanmar's Rakhine State between the Arakan Army (AA/ULA) and the military junta, with AA securing significant battlefield gains by seizing outposts, inflicting heavy casualties, capturing equipment, and prompting defections across multiple fronts including Kyaukphyu and bordering regions, while continuing...Read More

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