Monthly Report | September 2025

Escalating Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Socioeconomic Instability

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Western Myanmar in September 2025.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

From September 1 to 30, 2025, Rakhine State faced intense conflict, with a junta airstrike killing 23 students in Kyauktaw on September 12–13. The Arakan Army (AA) forced ARSA and RSO militants to withdraw from Maungdaw on September 25 and detained 64 Bangladeshi poachers. The AA reopened the Maungdaw Jame Mosque on September 16 to promote reconciliation, but alleged human rights abuses drew UN and BROUK scrutiny. Junta airstrikes, border tensions with Bangladesh, and civilian suffering highlighted the region’s ongoing crisis.

From September 1 to 29, 2025, Rakhine’s economy faced disruptions from conflict and smuggling, with the AA detaining 11 drug dealers in Ponnagyun on September 2. On September 23, Bangladesh seized fertilizers and arrested a Maungdaw youth with 1 million yaba pills, impacting local markets. Farmers struggled with low rice prices and planting issues, though sesame prices soared, while junta inspections secured Kyaukphyu’s pipeline on September 29. Youth migration surged amid economic strain and ongoing clashes.

From September 1 to 30, 2025, Rakhine faced a severe social crisis, with a junta airstrike on September 15 closing Kyauktaw schools after killing 23 students. The AA’s malaria testing in Maungdaw on September 30 identified 17 cases, but border restrictions limited healthcare access. The junta detained 13 Muslim fishermen in Pauktaw on September 25, targeting civilians. Food and medicine shortages, dengue deaths, and violence against women worsened the humanitarian situation.

From September 3 to 26, 2025, Rakhine faced a humanitarian crisis, with ULA distributing 1,164 rice bags to 2,188 Thandwe households on September 3. Phyu Phyu Kyaw Thein donated 100 million MMK in aid to IDPs in multiple townships on September 7, and AA’s HDCO supported 5,000 Muslims in Maungdaw and Buthidaung on September 26. Over 40,000 Kyaukphyu refugees sought aid, with 500 million MMK donated for Kyauktaw airstrike victims on September 17. AA’s alleged Rohingya repatriation restrictions and junta attacks worsened the crisis.

Key Developments

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

B - Economic Situations

C - Social Issues

D - Humanitarian Issues

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

1. Junta Airstrike on Kyauktaw Boarding Schools Kills 23 (September 12–13, 2025)

On September 12, 2025, the Myanmar junta conducted an airstrike on two private boarding schools in Kyauktaw Township, killing at least 18 students and injuring over 20 others. By September 13, the death toll rose to 23, with an additional student succumbing to injuries. The attack drew condemnation from UNICEF and sparked an online campaign by Arakanese youths targeting the junta Air Force, highlighting the severe impact on civilian education infrastructure.

2. ARSA and RSO Infiltrators Withdraw from Maungdaw Border (September 25, 2025)

On September 25, 2025, ARSA and RSO militants, responsible for attacks on non-Muslims near the Rakhine-Bangladesh border, withdrew to Bangladesh following AA counter-terrorism operations in Maungdaw. The AA reported that hundreds of these extremist militants were killed during the operations, underscoring heightened border tensions and AA’s efforts to secure the region against terrorist activities.

3. ULA/AA Reopens Maungdaw Jame Mosque (September 15–16, 2025)

On September 15, 2025, the Arakan Army Chief met with Muslim leaders in Maungdaw, leading to the reopening of the Maungdaw Jame Mosque on September 16 after a decade-long closure. This event was seen as a step toward fostering understanding and peace between communities, though concerns persisted among Rohingya about AA’s broader policies and alleged property seizures in the township.

General Overview

From September 1 to September 30, 2025, Rakhine State and adjacent areas faced intensified conflict and humanitarian challenges. The Myanmar junta escalated airstrikes and artillery attacks, notably killing 23 students in Kyauktaw (September 12–13) and causing civilian casualties in Mrauk-U, Paletwa, and Rathedaung. The Arakan Army (AA) countered junta forces, capturing military bases and personnel, while detaining 64 Bangladeshi poachers for illegal fishing in the Naf River. Tensions with ARSA and RSO persisted,…

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