Forging Rebel Alliances: How Arakan Army Expanded Across Myanmar

Executive Summary

Over the past 16 years, the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) has evolved from a marginal insurgent group of 26 fighters in KIA-held territory to a dominant force with over 50,000 troops and control over 90% of Rakhine State. This transformation marks one of the most significant insurgent ascents in contemporary Myanmar.

Unlike earlier Arakanese movements, the ULA/AA pursued a disciplined strategy of alliance-building, resource mobilization, and ethnic cooperation. By establishing operational footholds in Kachin and northern Shan States and fostering ties with Kachin, Ta’ang, Kokang, Wa, and Shan groups, the AA navigated ethnic rivalries while securing vital external sanctuaries and logistical networks—including a base in Karen State.

The AA’s partnerships with groups such as the KIA, MNDAA, and TNLA were grounded in reciprocal military support. While acquiring arms and training, the AA deployed thousands of troops to assist in joint offensives, particularly in northern Shan State, bolstering both its battlefield experience and political leverage amid intensifying junta pressure.

The 2021 military coup catalyzed the AA’s national expansion. Leveraging the anti-junta uprising, the AA maintained a ceasefire in Rakhine while supporting and training over 30 People’s Defense Forces (PDFs and E-PDFs) across ethnic and Bamar-majority regions— signaling its emergence as a key architect of nationwide resistance.

Following territorial gains across Rakhine, the AA’s influence has expanded into southern Chin, Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwaddy regions. While alliances in northern Myanmar remain strategically important, these new western partnerships reflect the AA’s dual focus on homeland security and a broader political role in Myanmar’s future.

Introduction: Background of the report

This report examines the Arakan Army’s (AA) activities outside Arakan in Myanmar. Its primary objectives are to trace the AA’s emergence in northern Myanmar, particularly in Kachin and northern Shan States; to analyze its activities in these regions; to explore its support for post coup resistance forces; to evaluate its role in the ‘Operation 1027’ launched on October 27, 2023; and to assess its growing influence as a dominant actor in western Myanmar and a key player in national politics.

The report is divided into four parts beyond the introduction. The second part details the AA’s growth in northern Myanmar, including Kachin, Ta’ang, Kokang, and Wa areas. It highlights how the AA leveraged these regions for external sanctuary, resource mobilization, and ethnic solidarity, reshaping Myanmar’s political landscape. The third part explores the AA’s expanded role in post-coup Myanmar politics since early 2021. It identifies the newly emerged resistance armed groups supported by AA leaders in both ethnic minority areas and Bamar heartland regions and examines how the National Unity Government (NUG) perceives the AA’s role in opposing military rule. The final part analyzes the AA’s involvement in ‘Operation 1027’ and its significance for the AA’s territorial control. It also discusses the AA’s new strongholds in allied territories, such as southern Chin in Chin Brotherhood areas and eastern Arakan Roma. This report serves as an initial step in studying an ethnic nationalist movement’s activity beyond its homeland and a key contribution to understanding the AA’s role in broader Myanmar politics.

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