Monthly Report | January 2025

Conflict Dynamics and Socio-Economic Impacts in Arakan

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Arakan in January 2025

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key Remarks

- In January 2025, the SAC struggled in Rakhine, failing to conduct a full census and intensifying attacks, including deadly airstrikes in Kan Htaung Gyi, Ponnagyun, and Kyauk Ni Maw. It reinforced positions in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Shwe Thaung Yan while increasing arrests of Arakanese youths and Rakhine ID cardholders. Meanwhile, the AA seized key military positions, cleared landmines, and trained locals. By late January, it captured more junta camps and punished soldiers for war crimes, while the SAC faced desertions and logistical failures.

- Arakan's economy saw high demand for winter crops and local alcohol, while the crab industry found new markets. The AA enforced financial measures, detained and later released Burmese cargoes to Bangladesh, and restricted fuel storage to prevent fires. Trade disruptions included the suspension of the Yangon-Teknaf route and a decline in tourism at Chaung Tha beach due to conflict threats. Meanwhile, illegal fishing by Bangladeshis persisted, cement prices dropped due to imports, and reports surfaced of Rakhine women being trafficked as 'Chinese wives.'

- Arakan faced severe social challenges as the junta navy detained over 200 Arakanese and restricted medicine and food transport. Hospitals struggled with blood shortages, while displaced communities suffered from disease and poor conditions. Economic hardships forced parents to seek adoption for their child, locals in Sittwe to survive on boiled rice, and fishermen to endure junta extortion. Schools closed, air travel from Kyaukphyu was restricted, and healthcare services lacked funding.

- In January 2025, junta airstrikes and shelling displaced thousands, with major evacuations in Ann, Kyaukphyu, and Chaung Tha. The APG and ULA provided aid, while junta forces detained Arakanese in Yangon and Ayeyarwady. Displaced communities faced severe hardships, especially in Lemyethna. The ULA allowed Hindus and Muslims to return to Maungdaw, but airstrikes in Kyauktaw forced more evacuations.

Table of Content

Part- I: Political Affairs

Part- II: Economic Situations

Part- III: Social Issues

Part- IV: Humanitarian Issues

Part- I: Political Affairs

In the political sector, the news related to the SAC’s activities include the conduction of population census, its air strikes and civilian casualties, fortification and reinforcement, artillery shelling, and extortion, etc.

On January 1, 2025, it was said that the SAC could not conduct a census of over 86 percent of the total population in Rakhine state. In the next day, it was reported that the junta Forces in Yangon targeted Arakanese youths, coercing them to remove shirts to inspect for Arakan-linked tattoos. Then, on January 3, the junta’s airstrike on Kan Htaung Gyi killed elderly woman and destroyed school and hospital buildings. It was followed by the junta airstrikes killing 3 women, a child, also injure several Ponnagyun residents on January 6, 2025. Three days ago, horrible news said that the junta’s airstrikes killed 41 at Kyauk Ni Maw village of Ramree and left 52 injured and 500 houses destroyed. The AA said it was a war crime.

On January 10, it was reported that the SAC fortified defence in Sittwe by recruiting more than 1000 Muslim recruits. One day later, it was mentioned that the junta’s airstrikes killed 9 civilians and injured 30 others in Kyauktaw town. Then, on January 12, the junta conducted 2 airstrikes on Taung Maw Oo village in Pauktaw, several buildings destroyed. In the southern part of Arakan, it was said that the junta intensified the military readiness in Shwe Thaung Yan, Ayeyarwady Region. Then, the junta conducted air strikes against War-Bo and Sabar Htar village on the same day of January 16, 2025.

As of January 18, it was said that the junta also increased its military fortification in Kyaukphyu. In the next, the junta airstrikes on temporary detention sites for Prisoners of War and their families resulted in 28 deaths and 25 injuries and the majority were women and children. Then, the junta also increased its arrests on the people who hold ID cards from Rakhine state.

Read More

download to PDF for read more