Monthly Report | May 2025

Conflict Trends, Economic Strains, and Humanitarian Blockades in Arakan

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Western Myanmar in May 2025.

About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

Executive Summary

The conflict in Rakhine State intensified, with the Arakan Army (AA) capturing key junta positions in Kyaukphyu, resulting in heavy casualties, including the death of a brigadier general. The junta’s airstrikes in Rathedaung and Kyauktaw killed dozens of civilians, drawing condemnation for targeting non-combatants. The AA released over 1,200 prisoners of war, demonstrating humanitarian efforts amid ongoing violence. Ceasefire extensions failed to curb hostilities, with alleged Chinese drone involvement complicating regional dynamics. Civilian suffering escalated due to landmines, media suppression, and forced recruitment by the junta.

Cross-border trade disruptions with Bangladesh and India severely impacted Rakhine’s economy, with indefinite halts and brief reopening reflecting the AA’s border control. Bangladesh Coast Guard crackdowns on smuggled fertilizer and cement underscored efforts to curb AA support. Rising costs for fuel, agricultural inputs, and basic goods like notebooks crippled local markets. The influx of fake medicines and food from neighboring countries compounded the crisis. Junta restrictions in Sittwe and smuggling, including narcotics, further destabilized the region’s economy.

Junta restrictions on food, medicine, and travel permits deepened civilian hardships in Sittwe, Ann, and Kyaukphyu, exacerbating displacement and resource scarcity. Violence against vulnerable groups, including the rape and murder of a young girl in Minbya, highlighted pervasive insecurity. Health and education systems collapsed, with medicine shortages and urgent vaccination needs in AA-controlled areas. The AA’s healthcare and infrastructure initiatives provided some relief, but drug use and looting in Sittwe worsened. Natural disasters and the death of politician U Hla Saw further strained Rakhine’s social fabric.

Over 1,300 households in Maungdaw remained displaced due to junta airstrike threats, while 60% of Rakhine displaced population needed urgent monsoon shelters. The junta’s demolition of homes in Sittwe worsened displacement and eroded trust. The AA resettled some displaced persons and expanded operations into Ayeyarwady Division but faced challenges with reconstruction staffing. Bangladesh’s opposition to Rakhine aid and the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government’s delay in Rohingya repatriation complicated humanitarian efforts. Chinese workers abandoning Kyaukphyu projects signaled the conflict’s broader economic and regional impact.

Key Developments

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

B - Economic Situations

C - Social Issues

D - Humanitarian Issues

A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

1. Escalation of Kyaukphyu Conflict

The conflict in Kyaukphyu intensified, with the Arakan Army (AA) capturing strategic positions, including a military post near the No. 32 Police Battalion and a village on May 29. Heavy casualties were reported, with hundreds of Military Council (junta) soldiers killed, including Brig. Gen. Kyaw Myo Aung, and a lieutenant colonel captured on May 31. The junta’s use of airstrikes and alleged Chinese drone support near a Chinese energy project highlighted the conflict’s regional implications.

2. Junta’s Airstrikes and Civilian Casualties

The junta conducted airstrikes in Rathedaung and Kyauktaw, dropping 500-lb bombs in Rathedaung on May 13, killing over a dozen civilians and injuring more than 20. In Kyauktaw, bombings on May 14–15 killed at least six civilians and injured nine, destroying homes. These attacks, condemned by the American Rakhine community, underscored the junta’s targeting of civilian areas despite ceasefire extensions.

3. AA’s Humanitarian Actions and POW Releases

The AA released over 1,200 prisoners of war (POWs) and their families across Rakhine State, including 225 POWs on May 17, 300 families from Buthidaung on May 19, 32 junta members in Maungdaw on May 20, and 184 POWs from Mrauk-U. The AA also rescued three Muslim individuals abducted by ARSA in Maungdaw on May 7, demonstrating efforts to protect civilians and promote freedom of movement for Muslims in controlled areas.

General Overview

From May 1 to May 31, 2025, Rakhine State and parts of Myanmar experienced ongoing conflict between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Military Council (junta), despite multiple ceasefire extensions. The junta’s airstrikes and artillery attacks, particularly in Rathedaung, Kyauktaw, and Kyaukphyu, caused significant civilian casualties, with over 114 civilians killed and 170 injured in Rakhine over four months. Landmines and unexploded ordnance further harmed civilians, including children and the elderly. The AA intensified military operations, capturing key junta positions in Kyaukphyu and along the Ann-Padan Road, while also releasing numerous POWs and ensuring civilian safety. Cultural events, such as the Mro National Day, were held amid the violence, reflecting resilience. External actors, including alleged Chinese involvement and Bangladesh’s diplomatic tensions, complicated the conflict, which also saw media suppression and forced recruitment by the junta. The AA’s territorial control expanded, framing military service as a national duty, while the junta faced internal disarray and mounting losses.…Read More

Download the full report to read more!